Research on Economic Policy Uncertainty and Import Trade

Strategic Trade Policy under Uncertainty

This paper extends the Brander-Spencer (1985) model by considering market uncertainty, exploring nonlinear policy, and examining ̄rms' choices of strategic variables. By investigating the interrelationship between trade policy and market conduct, we ̄nd that unlike the oftenstudied linear policy, a nonlinear policy can in°uence the domestic ̄rm's choice of strategic variables and hence alter th...

Agglomeration and economic development: Import substitution vs trade liberalisation

This paper analyses a model of economic development in which international differences in industrial structure and income are caused by the agglomeration of industry in a subset of countries. Economic development may not be a gradual process of convergence by all countries, but instead involve countries moving sequentially from the group of poor countries to the group of rich countries. The rol...

Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty and its components on firm-level investment. It is found that economic policy uncertainty in interaction with firm-level uncertainty depresses firms’ investment decisions. When firms are in doubt about costs of doing business due to possible changes in regulation, cost of health care and taxes, they become more guarded with investmen...

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations

We investigate the relationship between uncertainty about monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, and economic fluctuations. We propose a new term structure model where the second moments of macroeconomic variables and yields can have a first-order effect on their dynamics. The data favors a model with two unspanned volatility factors that capture uncertainty about monetary policy and t...

The impact of the financial and economic crisis on world trade and trade policy